Cosmos: A Journal of Geography

Population Ageing and Dependency Trends in India, Uttar Pradesh and Prayagraj (1991-2031).

Demographic change in India is unfolding a structural shift that is characterized by falling fertility, declining child dependency, and a gradually rising share of the elderly population, which indicates the onset of aging in India. This study analyses the trend in the elderly population and age structure in India, Uttar Pradesh and Prayagraj from 1991 to 2031. The data is collected from secondary sources such as the Census of India and the Elderly in India 2021 report to measure and analyze key indices such as the percentage of the elderly population, old age dependency ratio (OADR), and the aging index. The analysis of data shows that there is a continuous decline in the share of the child population (0-14 years), a gradual rise in the elderly population (60+ years), and a relatively expanding working-age population (15-59 years). This trend is observed across all the geographies, though at a different pace. The findings highlight that the ageing and dependency pressure are increasing at a faster rate in India in comparison to Uttar Pradesh and Prayagraj. This structural change in the demography has several implications for traditional family-based care, health care demand and social protection policy formulations. The study suggests a proactive age-sensitive planning for the present as well as for the future in order to harness the demographic dividend while managing the challenges of aging in India, Uttar Pradesh, and districts like Prayagraj at the same time.