Cosmos: A Journal of Geography

Climatic Variability and Rice Yield Instability in a Semi-Arid Region of India: Evidence from Banda District, Bundelkhand

Climate variability has emerged as a major challenge for agricultural sustainability in semi-arid regions where crop production is highly dependent on monsoon rainfall. The present study examines the impact of climatic variability on rice productivity and yield instability in Banda district, located in the drought-prone region of Bundelkhand, during 1990–2019. The study utilized district-level time-series data on rice yield, monsoon rainfall, monsoon temperature, water deficit, irrigation, and fertilizer consumption obtained from the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics database. Descriptive statistics, trend analysis, Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, correlation analysis, multiple regression modelling, yield anomaly analysis, and the Cuddy–Della Valle instability index were employed to assess climate–agriculture relationships and productivity instability. The results revealed a significant increasing trend in rice yield despite substantial interannual variability in climatic conditions. Monsoon temperature exhibited a significant increasing trend, while rainfall and water deficit did not show significant long-term changes. Regression and anomaly models identified monsoon rainfall as the most important determinant of interannual rice yield variability. The instability analysis indicated moderate-to-high rice yield instability; however, the decline in trend-adjusted instability during the post-2005 period suggests partial stabilization of productivity through agricultural adaptation measures such as irrigation expansion and input intensification. The findings highlight that although technological improvements have enhanced agricultural resilience, rice cultivation in Banda district remains highly vulnerable to monsoon variability and hydro-climatic stress. The study emphasizes the need for climate-resilient agricultural strategies to strengthen food security and sustainable agricultural development in semi-arid regions of India.